Fear of the Future: Causal Layered Analysis and Narrative Foresight Versus Conspiracy Theories

The work

AuthorsThomas F. Connolly
Typearticle
Year2025
Citekeyconnolly2025fear

Where it appeared

Published inWorld Futures
PublisherInforma UK Limited
Volume81
Issue8
Pages579--592

Abstract

This essay addresses conspiracism using an interdisciplinary futures studies approach. Conspiracy theories can be reframed, rather than dismissed, via Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and narrative foresight. After the historical roots of conspiracy theory are traced, narratives that support conspiracies are discussed, and cognitive biases like the conjunction fallacy are examined. The effectiveness of CLA is demonstrated through case studies such as QAnon and The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. A survey of research on digital disinformation shows how futures literacy, as opposed to media literacy and critical thinking, can counter conspiracism and enable planning for inclusive, affirmative alternative futures.

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Cite it as

@article{connolly2025fear,
  title        = {Fear of the Future: Causal Layered Analysis and Narrative Foresight Versus Conspiracy Theories},
  author       = {Thomas F. Connolly},
  year         = {2025},
  journal      = {World Futures},
  volume       = {81},
  number       = {8},
  pages        = {579--592},
  publisher    = {Informa UK Limited},
  doi          = {10.1080/02604027.2025.2569012},
}

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