Mitigating and responding to cognitive warfare

The work

Where it appeared

Abstract

The NATO Science and Technological Organization (STO) Human Factors and Medicine (HFM) Exploratory Team (ET) 356 performed an assessment of the Science and Technologies required to mitigate and defend against Cognitive Warfare (CogWar). The ET-356 proposed a Science and Technology (S&T) roadmap to guide NATO and Allied Partners in future research activities and investments. For NATO to have the capability to acquire and preserve Decision and Cognitive Superiority over their adversaries and across the conflict spectrum, scientific based knowledge is needed to support and increase NATO’s operational readiness to respond to CogWar. CogWar is not necessarily new but has emerged as a product of the integration and confluence of many technological advances and as availability and access to information and technology has increased. CogWar takes well-known methods within warfare to a new level by attempting to alter and shape the way humans think, react, and make decisions. CogWar has emerged replete with security challenges due to its invasive, intrusive, and invisible nature and where the goal is to exploit facets of cognition to disrupt, undermine, influence, or modify human decisions (proposed by ET-356). CogWar represents the convergence of a wide range of advanced technologies along with human factors and systems, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Information Communication Technologies (ICT), neuroscience, biotechnology and human enhancement that are being deliberately used by NATO’s adversaries in the 21st century battlespace. CogWar presents a significant risk to global defence and security at every level including economic, geopolitical, social, cultural, as well as threatening human decision making. The task of ET-356 was focused solely on identifying and suggesting defensive S&T to strengthen the Alliance’s deterrence against CogWar and improve NATO’s and national resilience critical to NATO’s core tasks to safeguard Allied nations, societies, and shared values. CogWar gives rise to the adversaries’ ability to shape human cognition, perception, sensemaking, situational awareness, and decision making at all levels. The ability to intentionally (mis)use information within digital networks and disseminate it globally on various platforms such as social media has given rise to new tools and methods for the adversary. CogWar also aims at disrupting relationships and targets human vulnerabilities, such as trust and cognitive bias, at both individual and national levels, and its impact is across all operational domains. This report presents a summary of the key areas of S&T that are required to mitigate and defend against CogWar. The proposed S&T Road map is based on a “House Model,” developed by ET-356, and is linked to the operational Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act (OODA) decision cycle. The House Model represents seven main S&T knowledge areas and enablers that are cross-cutting and intersectional related: Pillars: Cognitive Neuroscience, Cognitive and Behavioral Science, Social and Cultural Science; and Bars: Situational Awareness and Sensemaking, Cognitive Effects, Modus Operandi and Technology and Force Multipliers. The seven areas provide the basis for research discussions within NATO STO and its Panels and Groups. This report provides guidance for future research within NATO STO, Allies, and national S&T investments for defence against current and future CogWar and to strengthen NATO’s technological edge and strategic advantage against CogWar. The work by the HFM ET-356 underpins the NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept and its Warfare Development Initiative Cognitive Superiority, and the new NATO Strategic Concept declared at the NATO Madrid Summit 2022.